Did America blink?
In shutting down any Chinese imports of humanoid robots to America, is America finally and openly admitting to the world that China’s tech superiority in humanoids cannot be matched? And was that admission China’s hope?

Is the situation in any way analogous to America’s admission in the 1980s that Japan’s automobiles were far superior to America’s?

And was that admission Japan’s hope? And did not Japan then proceed to access America’s vast auto market with superior automobiles, as well as to avoid any ban on them from America, to sidestep any trade skirmish, and to eventually win a trade war where Tokyo grew a massive U.S marketplace presence that still receives the lion’s share of profits from America’s consumers?

As it says everywhere in the oft-quoted The Art of War that if you shout loud enough, wave your banners high, blow your horns loudly and get your spies in gear, it will terrify enemies into an easy surrender.

Is China about to ditto with its humanoid robots the Japanese automobile conquest of America? And does it manifest extra mega-leverage knowing that actuators, gearheads, rare-earth motor magnets, battery modules, and other essential parts, to the tune of 50% to 70% of American humanoids, are provided by China, as detailed in McKinsey’s: “The anatomy of a humanoid robot’s bill of materials.” Tesla’s Optimus supply chain audits indicate that roughly 70% of the hardware component value is Chinese. That’s a scary dependency to say the least.

See related: U.S. vs. China: Race for Innovation in AI & Robotics

Today, in the U.S. marketplace, American-branded automakers hold roughly a 44% market share, while Japanese-branded automakers capture approximately 37% to 40%.

Would China ever agree to an uncontested 37% share of America’s humanoid marketplace? You bet!

See related: Why So Little Robot Automation in America?

Or, did America wink?
Just as manufacturers like to make new product announcements at upcoming tradeshows, was the Trump Administration planning all along to ban Chinese humanoids (i.e. having the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) add foreign-produced “advanced robotic devices”—specifically defined as foreign-produced humanoids, quadrupeds, and autonomous mobile robots weighing more than 4.4 pounds (2 kg)—to its Covered List)? All of it in anticipation of the White House “tradeshow” meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping, scheduled for September 24th in Washington.

With high assurances, no doubt, Washington telegraphed to its allies that they would receive automatic FCC wavers for their humanoids, quadrupeds, and autonomous mobile robots. The White House is undergoing final arrangements for September 24th, and making sure U.S. allies feel comfortable about their hall passes from the FCC.

More than likely, the ban comes as no surprise to Beijing. China’s been waiting for that shoe to drop as it seemingly, with near-daily regularity, piled on robot and AI tech successes and breakthroughs one upon another for the past two years.

Well-aware that it was consistently besting the U.S. in humanoid development and deployment and embodied AI, it was forcing the issue of Chinese dominance to come from the mouth of its arch competitor, and thereby, once and for all, see America openly admit to the world that China was the numero uno.

The FCC ban effectively was America’s admission to being number two.

That’s not going to sit very well at all with the Trump Administration.

President Xi and his besties will probably bring a few gifts for President Trump; the best of them will more than likely copy the Honda Marysville factory, but China-size, it’ll be the Three Gorges Dam of factories.